Odds, Betting Picks, and Predictions for the 2023/19 German Bundesliga
Published on August 21, 2022
The German Bundesliga is the last big European soccer league that hasn’t started yet. The first game of the 2023-2019 season will be on Friday when the champions Bayern Munich host Hoffenheim.
A lot of people will be eager to watch the games, as the Bundesliga is one of the most exciting competitions out there. It is full of young talent, and the fans are among the most passionate in Europe. The atmosphere of most matches is absolutely electric.
The only issue is that one team is probably too dominant, which hurts the competitiveness of the league. Bayern Munich simply has too much money and power, which is the reason the side is way ahead of everyone else.
Even when another team manages to challenge the Bavarians properly, it’s usually for a year or two, before the best players join Bayern Munich. That’s what happened with the likes of Lewandowski and Mario Gotze.
Still, there are a lot of reasons to enjoy the Bundesliga, and sometimes there are teams who actually give Bayern a tough fight.
Let’s take a look if this could be the case in 2023-2019 and also check if there are some interesting betting picks that could provide some value.
Before I proceed to my analysis, let’s check what the sports betting sites have to say about the title fight in Germany. Here are the best odds I found for each of the top teams.
As you can see, the bookies are confident no other club can challenge Bayern Munich. I agree with such an assessment. The Bavarians finished last season at least 21 points above everyone else, with the best defense and offense, by a margin.
It was a walk in the park, and there is no reason to believe something will change this summer. The squad of the reigning champions will be largely the same. They have a bunch of world-class players and strength in depth that no one in Germany could match.
I expect more of the same, so Bayern should easily grab the title, with a huge lead. And yet, the price for that to happen is only 1.14. While this is probably fair considering the edge Bayern has over the rest of the bunch, it’s still a bet I’m quite reluctant to take.
This is why I will focus on another market offered – which team will finish the highest if we exclude Bayern. The odds there are as follows.
Borussia Dortmund is obviously the favorite because the side has been the most consistent club after Bayern and the most stubborn chaser. Borussia even managed to snatch a couple of trophies in the past decade.
And yet, the team finished fourth last season, behind both Schalke 04 and Hoffenheim. This is the reason it’s worth exploring what each side did in the summer and seeing if there’s any value out there.
Borussia Dortmund didn’t have a good season by its own standards last year. The side almost crashed out of the top 4, but they did manage to get the vital Champions League spot by goal difference at the end. On top of that, Dortmund did nothing impressive in the DFB Cup or in Europe.
New coach Lucien Favre was appointed in the summer, and the club will hope that he will change the situation. I must admit I don’t know him that well, but the Swiss manager did a decent job in Nice and Gladbach.
He instantly sold a couple of players like Sokratis and Yarmolenko, but Borussia Dortmund did buy more than decent replacements. The promising center back Abdou Diallo should take the place of Sokratis at the back, while players like Thomas Delaney and Axel Witsel should strengthen the middle of the park significantly.
I’m not quite sure if Dortmund will have any chance to stay close enough to Bayern to put them under some kind of pressure, but they are well-equipped to be the second-best team in Germany.
And yet, there are some question marks. The team lost a world-class forward in Aubameyang in the winter, and there is a new manager. On top of that, you never know if Marco Reus will be able to stay fit, considering his .
This is why I don’t see any value in the price of 1.83 for Dortmund and will stay away from this bet.
One of the teams that had an exciting season was RB Leipzig. The side was only sixth in the Bundesliga but made a deep run in the Europa League in 2017-2023.
The fans will be hoping for an improvement domestically, as the attack of the team was good, but the defense let in 53 goals in only 34 games. That’s a terrible record that needs an improvement.
However, I’m not sure that will happen. The side did bring a couple of full-backs, and I expect a center back by the end of the transfer window. However, there is none right now, and RB Leipzig lost one of its best players. Naby Keita was sold to Liverpool and has already shown a lot of potential.
I don’t think RB Leipzig has brought in a replacement so far, and this is a real issue. As it stands, the side is worse than last year, so I don’t see a chance of finishing second. Even a price of 6.00 is simply not good enough for me.
Bayer Leverkusen was unlucky to finish in the 5th spot in the 2017-2023 season, as only the better goal difference of Borussia Dortmund and Hoffenheim made the difference. And yet, I believe this is a positive thing for the side’s chances this year.
After all, Leverkusen won’t be playing in the Champions League, which is a huge advantage. The side doesn’t have a squad that could successfully fight hard in such a competition, but they could do the job domestically.
The young and promising coach Heiko Herrlich will start his second season at the helm, and I expect improved results. The only major loss in the transfer market was the goalkeeper Bernd Leno, who’s currently .
Despite his obvious potential, I don’t think Leno is the finished article, so the consequences of this deal would be long-term. Leverkusen should be fine this season.
As for the arriving players, the side took a gamble with the talented but still raw Brazilian Paulinho from Vasco Da Gama. I don’t expect wonders from him this year, but he could be a useful impact sub for the club. There’s only one other notable transfer, and it’s the arrival of right back Mitchell Weiser from Herta.
I think the coach is the main weapon for Leverkusen this season, and Herrlich should be able to improve his side.
This is why the price of 6.00 is tempting, and it’s my personal pick. Of course, the lack of Champions League soccer is another advantage that will help the coach keep his core players fresh, compared to the main competitors.
If we remove Bayern from the 2017-2023 season, Schalke 04 was the team that finished at least 8 points above every other club in the Bundesliga. This is quite the feat, so we should certainly take a look at the team this season.
The defense was Schalke 04’s main weapon, as the team was joint second when it came to least goals conceded. The problem is, the young and promising Thilo Kehrer is now gone, along with the experienced Benedikt Howedes. Many believe this could be an issue, but I’m not that certain.
Those two departures seemingly leave Schalke 04 exposed in the center back position. Still, Howedes was no part of the team last year as well, and the club bought Suat Serdar from Mainz to replace Kehrer. He is a strong signing, and I expect him to slot well.
I also believe that the main reason behind the exceptional Schalke 04 defense is the young coach, Domenico Tedesco.
Tedesco brought discipline and teamwork to the side, but the attacking part of the game must be improved this season. Although the signing of Mark Uth (who scored 14 goals last season) could help here, they still look a little light in this department.
The price of 6.50 for the side to finish first, if we exclude Bayern, is pretty good. I prefer Bayer Leverkusen for the reasons outlined previously, but this is also a bet worth considering.
I don’t think we can ignore the club that finished 3rd last season, so let’s take a look at Hoffenheim. The side was entertaining and scored plenty of goals, but the defense was an issue.
I believe one of the main benefits of Hoffenheim was the early exit from the top European competitions, which allowed the team to focus on the Bundesliga. This worked well, but there is a desperate need of some strength in depth for the 2023-2019 season.
As it stands, Hoffenheim has failed to address it, and the squad is quite similar to the one from last season in most areas and arguably worse after top scorer Mark Uth has gone to Schalke.
Despite the good performance in the in the last campaign, most of the competition has improved, and Hoffenheim could very well have a prolonged journey in Europe.
This is why I don’t like the team’s chances, even if the odds of 16.50 look tempting.
The main market is now clear, so let’s move ahead and take a closer look at some of the other possible picks. For a start, there’s the opportunity to back Schalke 04 for a top 4 finish at the fantastic price of 2.50.
You can see my reasoning above. It’s pretty much the same, so I won’t go into too many details about this particular pick.
There is another market that interests me. Robert Lewandowski was the top scorer of 2017-2023, and he is the overwhelming favorite to claim the title again. He scored 14+ goals more than the rest of the field, and I don’t think anyone could close the gap.
The price for the Polish striker to once again become the Bundesliga’s most lethal finisher is 1.50. Normally, I would pass on such odds, but I feel there is value this time around. Lewandowski will score 20+ goals with ease, and no one else can catch him.
There are only two potential problems that could stop him. The first one is a long injury, but Lewandowski has been fit for most of his career, so the chances are slim.
On the other hand, there were plenty of rumors that the striker might be interested in joining Real Madrid, and there are about 2 weeks left until the end of the transfer window. Still, Bayern Munich representatives have refused to even comment on a potential deal multiple times.
In fact, it looks like they have been for a while now. Considering how wealthy and powerful the club is, I don’t think Bayern could be forced to sell.
This is why I can easily see Lewandowski with the Golden Boot again, and the price of 1.50 is good enough.
I analyzed the rest of the Bundesliga betting markets available, but I didn’t find any potential opportunities that provide good value. I could be wrong, of course, so feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below.
Are there any other picks that I might have missed?
Can someone actually stop Bayern Munich?
There will undoubtedly be some better value to be had in the Bundesliga as the season progresses, so I’ll keep you all updated with anything I find moving forward.