MENUEnglish Premier League Betting Picks for August 25th - 27th
By Jerry Summer
Published on August 23, 2022
Published on August 23, 2022
"The Authority in Online Gambling"
The start of the English Premier League has been mixed so far, from a betting perspective. I got one of my two picks from last week right, but the other one went wrong.
I honestly didn’t expect Watford to be that efficient up front, but they punished every mistake by Burnley. At least Everton won against Southampton and showed a lot of promise, so this pick was won.
It’s time to move on to the next weekend, as I feel there are some exciting games that provide a lot of exciting betting opportunities. On top of that, the information we get each week is invaluable, and I feel more comfortable with my picks after each game.
Let’s take a look at what to expect this time around.
The main betting markets for this game show the following.
The bookies see Manchester City as the overwhelming favorite in this game, and it’s hard to argue. They’ve dismantled Arsenal at the start of the season and then trashed Huddersfield in the second round.
There are no reasons to believe the side will be slowing down, while Wolves have won one point from the opening two matches and seem a bit naïve at the back.
As for the goals market, the gambling sites obviously expect some goals here, and this is normal when the reigning champions are playing. They are more than capable of scoring a couple each game, so no surprise here, either.
And yet, I feel there is some value up for grabs, as you will see at the end of my analysis.
Everyone, and especially the Wolves fans, expects a lot this campaign. The side swept the competition in the Championship last season and improved the squad dramatically in the summer. On top of that, Nuno Santo is one of the most exciting young managers in the league.
I think the first two games in the English Premier League have been a good reality check for the team. Despite some positive signs in the first two matches against Everton and Leicester, Wolves won only a point.
They play with purpose, and obviously the manager has interesting ideas, especially in attack. The side has created enough chances, but their finishing has let them down, mostly against Leicester. I would argue that the side dominated the Foxes for larger periods of the game, but they didn’t manage to find the net.
Most of the time, you get punished for such a lack of efficiency, which is exactly what happened. The situation was similar against Everton when Wolves played against 10 men for most of the game and barely got a point at the end.
Wolves shouldn’t be too concerned at this early stage of the season, but a trend is developing that must stop at some point.
Unfortunately for Nuno Santo and his boys, the next opponent they face will be Manchester City. If there’s a side that can take full advantage of the naïve defense of the Wolves, it’s this one.
The manager will have to make some sacrifices with his ideas or suffer the consequences. If Wolverhampton plays with the same system as the first two matches, it would be a trashing. There simply would be too much space for Man City to exploit, and they have the players to do it.
This is why I can see a more conservative approach that will rely on more players behind the ball and counter-attacks. The problem is, Wolves are not used to play like that. If you add the difference in the quality of both teams, the chances of Wolverhampton to take something from this match are really slim.
And yet, this is the English Premier League, so completely underestimating the team would be a huge mistake.
I’m not really sure what to say about Manchester City. They are simply stunning. After easily beating Arsenal in the opening weekend of the EPL season, the reigning champions trashed Huddersfield 6-1 at home in the next one.
Sergio Aguero is on fire, Gabriel Jesus is looking strong too, while David Silva is simply one of the most creative players in the English Premier League. He is making sure that will go unnoticed.
On top of that, we haven’t seen that much from the likes of Sane and Sterling. The attacking might of Manchester City is simply out of this world, and I won’t be surprised if they break more records this season.
The side looked shaky at the back at times, but it only happened when the three points were in the bag. Such an arrogance could bring some problems, so I expect Pep Guardiola to try and force his players to stay focused until the final whistle.
And yet, the side is once again ready to completely dominate the league, and teams like Wolverhampton shouldn’t be an issue most of the time.
I can easily see Manchester City winning comfortably in this match. And yet, a price of 1.27 for the away team in the English Premier League is not the best idea.
In fact, if I was going to bet on the match result, I would’ve probably backed Wolves with some Asian handicap, as they could give City a go and lose with only a goal or two.
However, there is another market I certainly like. The defensive issues of the Wolves and City’s monstrous attack certainly mean that the reigning champions will have plenty of chances to score. With a guy like Aguero on fire and a bunch of other players looking strong, I think Man City will find the net multiple times.
After all, the Wolves conceded twice against both Everton and Leicester. It’s not far-fetched to expect three or more from the champions.
At the same time, Wolverhampton has managed to create chances in each of the games so far. I think they will have some against City, too, so the home side could actually score as well.
I feel that we could see a goal-fest here, something like 4-5 goals scored in total. The price of 2.02 for over 3.25 goals is great, in my opinion, because you get half of your stake back if there are 3 goals in the match. This is my final pick, as I expect a scoreline such as 3-1 for Man City at the end.
Let’s look at the main betting odds of the London Derby between Arsenal and West Ham.
Both sides have lost their opening games, but Arsenal is certainly the better team and has the potential to fight for the top 4. This is the reason BetOnline believes the Gunners will win this match with ease. I expect the same to happen, so the odds of 1.37 for the home win are hardly a shocker.
At the same time, the bookie also sees a lot of goals in this match. I’m not 100% sure about that, but more on that later.
For now, let’s see how both sides did so far.
The opening two games of the EPL season are always going to be a nightmare for Arsenal, as the Gunners had to face Manchester City at home and Chelsea away. And yet, many supporters hoped to see the side take something from at least one of them.
There was barely a chance for such a scenario against the reigning champions, but Arsenal could’ve gotten at least a draw against Chelsea. The Blues dominated large periods of the game, but the Gunners had some great chances to go ahead a couple of times, but they lost at the end.
Arsenal has not been terrible at all in their early games. The side is creating some opportunities up front and is covering a lot of ground.
There are some if Unai Emery should stick to his plans or actually try to change them a bit. I believe this is unfair, because you can’t expect much from the first two games either way.
For me, it’s more about the next 10 games or so, as Arsenal will be facing teams outside of the top 6. This represents the perfect opportunity to gather some points and improve the cohesion inside the team.
The opposition won’t be as strong as in the first two matches, so the mistakes that are bound to happen during a transition shouldn’t be punished in the same way.
I expect much better from Arsenal, and the game against the struggling West Ham is a great opportunity to hit the ground running. The Gunners will be eager to back their manager and win for the first time during this campaign.
On top of that, I think we will see the system that Emery deployed in the summer friendlies. He will unleash both Aubameyang and Lacazette, so I expect a lot of chances for the Gunners.
West Ham also doesn’t have any points so far, as the Hammers lost both of their first two games. There’s no shame in getting trashed by Liverpool at Anfield, but losing against Bournemouth at home is hardly ideal.
The team didn’t create enough chances and looked leaky at the back. Manuel Pellegrini won’t be happy with his boys, and the pressure could easily start piling if West Ham doesn’t improve dramatically.
I firmly believe the squad is solid enough for better performances than they’ve shown so far. They have some good talent in their side and should be able to prove that at some point.
Unfortunately for the East London side, an away game against Arsenal is not an ideal fixture to start gaining confidence. I don’t expect things to turn around against Arsenal, and I can see the Hammers struggling a lot.
Their defense will have to face a more attacking Arsenal formation, and I don’t think West Ham has the means to cope. What the side can do is hope to take advantage of the unconvincing defense of the opponent and score first.
I feel that Arsenal will be too strong for West Ham in this match. The Gunners will be eager to find their first win, and this match is a great opportunity to do so.
The only chance for the Hammers would be to score first. If that’s not the case, I can actually see a trashing. This is why I decided to pick Arsenal to clear the -1.5 Asian Handicap. The price for that is 1.97, which is high enough.
A scoreline such as 3-0 or 3-1 is what I expect from this match.
Here are the main betting odds for this match.
Watford has started the season in a brilliant fashion, but Crystal Palace showed some exciting stuff, too. This is the reason why the game between those two sides is rather hard to predict, at least in terms of the winner.
Obviously, the bookies agree with such an assessment, as there is no favorite. The odds for each outcome are high and tempting, but I honestly believe this game is unpredictable when it comes to finding a winner.
What surprises me is the goal line here. I would expect such odds for a line of 2.5 goals, not 2.25. Both clubs are good at scoring, so it could be a very open game.
But before I move to my actual prediction, let’s dive into a bit more detail about each team.
I won’t lie; I didn’t expect much from Watford before the start of the season. The side looked like one of the candidates for relegation, in my opinion, but I might’ve been wrong on this one.
Watford managed to win its first two games, against Brighton and Burnley, and sits comfortably around the top of the EPL table.
Watford managed to beat a strong Burnley side away from home, despite being the worse team in the opening 45 minutes. Watford improved dramatically after the interval and quickly scored two goals, highlighting their strong attack.
This is what could be the key to the season, as the defense is hardly convincing. Watford will have to score plenty of goals, but they might have the potential to do so, especially against teams like Crystal Palace at home.
I like Crystal Palace. They have a strong squad and some exciting players. The team was exceptional against Fulham in the first round and won 2-0 away from home.
Despite failing to find the net versus Liverpool, Crystal Palace put the team from Merseyside under a lot of pressure at times, and this was a tough game for Jurgen Klopp and his boys.
If Palace is capable of consistently putting up such a performance against the other teams in the Premier League, the club will certainly finish in the top side of the table.
The attacking players of Palace should be able to create chances against a shaky Watford defense, so a goal or two wouldn’t surprise me.
I wouldn’t dare to pick the winner here, as I feel the game is extremely close. Palace seems like the better side, but Watford has the confidence of winning two in a row and will be having the home advantage.
However, I do like the goals market here. Both sides are more than capable of scoring, so a 2-1 win for either team is my prediction. This is why the price of 1.90 for over 2.25 goals seems like a good choice. If there are only two goals in the match, you still get half of your stake back.
There are a couple of other interesting games this weekend, but I wasn’t quite convinced to pick them. For a start, Liverpool should trash Brighton at home.
I could easily see the Reds scoring 3-4 goals, so the price of 1.96 for them to cover the -2.25 Asian Handicap is somewhat tempting. Still, I would’ve preferred 2.00 or more to go for it.
I also think that Southampton could beat Leicester at home. The Saints are showing signs of progress, despite winning only a point. At the same time, Leicester was lucky to beat the Wolves last time around and didn’t look strong enough at the back.
The price of 2.33 looks good, but I would prefer to watch one or two more decent games by Southampton before I start backing them in such matches.
This is the first time this season that I’ve picked three games, but I feel confident that they are all worth it. Let’s hope for a good weekend and some juicy profits at the end of the EPL Matchday 3.
As always, if you feel I’m wrong in my analysis, let me know in the comments below. Also, feel free to share your own predictions.
Good luck!
