Paul Felder vs. Dan Hooker Betting Odds and Breakdown

I woke up this morning with a question stuck in my head — I wonder what the odds for Paul Felder vs. Dan Hooker are?

An innocuous one to ponder as you stretch those arms out and yawn at the dog (who clearly needs to empty their bladder). But as I opened the patio doors and waited for the hound to do her thing, I tried to envisage how this lightweight clash ends.

And I couldn’t come up with a straight answer. Seriously.

You know, that isn’t always a bad thing when betting on a fight. So, with that in mind, I went looking for the best Felder vs. Hooker odds I could find to see if they could influence my thinking.

Because it’s always worth a shot.

Even comparing odds for this one on our leading UFC betting sites tells me that the oddsmakers are second-guessing themselves. It’s definitely going to be a tight fight, I can assure you of that, but where are the advantages for either guy?

Eventually, I poured myself a cup of coffee, sat down, and figured a few things out when it comes to betting on Paul Felder vs. Dan Hooker. Now that you are here, it would be rude not to share my conclusions with you.

Let’s start with who I think wins in Auckland on February 23.

Following some toing and froing, I decided to go for Paul Felder to beat Dan Hooker by decision.

Now, this fight is a real pick ‘em, due to the quality both guys take into the cage. But for me, not even home advantage on Hooker’s part will put him ahead of Felder.

This fight is going to be absolutely off the charts in terms of excitement. These two are real entertainers and as tough as they come.

I’m going to break down my reasoning for why Felder beats Hooker a little later, but first, let’s take a look at the odds for this UFC Fight Night 168 headliner.

The odds below come courtesy of MyBookie and are subject to change.

As I mentioned earlier, these odds are as tight as you can get. There has also been some interesting movement across the board, and I can see that trend continuing as we approach the fight.

I believe that Hooker will remain the slight favorite up until the night of the fight, but the closing odds will be just as close, if not even closer.

Felder enters as the slight underdog to beat Hooker, at odds of +105. Hooker’s odds to beat Felder are -135, with the home advantage contributing to this, no doubt.

I think you will struggle to find any objective, knowledgable MMA fan who can give you a clear and distinct reason why either guy should be a certainty to win this one. It’s going to come down to very fine margins, in my opinion.

So, would it be worth looking at Felder vs. Hooker prop bets? The short answer is yes.

But as it stands, the odds are not yet available.What I will do is break down bets to target for when they are released.

I’ll be straight with you — whether you are betting on Felder or Hooker, the moneyline is more than good enough.

Felder, my pick, is +105 to win this fight. I don’t think that those odds are anything less than solid, given that this is as close to a 50-50 fight that you are going to see in the upper reaches of the lightweight division.

That said, you might be thinking of maximizing your potential winnings by trying to guess how this one ends. And with knowing the moneyline odds, I can certainly say that you will be looking at a decent return if you back these bets.

The best thing to do is to check them out closer to fight night. If the risk outweighs the odds, stick with the moneyline. But if there is value, these Felder vs. Hooker bets are worth considering.

This one, in my opinion, goes the distance.

And when you consider that Felder has never been knocked out, that adds to my theory that he stands a great chance of taking this one on the cards.

Both men are very tough, but Felder definitely has an advantage when it comes to durability.

It is worth noting that both Felder and Hooker have never fought a five-rounder before, which will make stamina and toughness very important in this fight.

Hooker is on home soil, which could influence at least one of the judges.

That said, the fight alone is going to be close enough to suggest that the three judges on the night will have their work cut out. It all comes down to interpretation, and in a war like the one I am expecting, interpretation isn’t always clear cut.

Both guys are coming off points wins. Felder earned a split decision over Edson Barboza in September, while Hooker got the nod from all three judges over Al Iaquinta the following month.

I believe this one will go over the 2.5 round mark and right to the cards.

If the odds look good, this could be a bet that you could make work for you.

I’ve kind of already walked you through the key points of why I think Felder will beat Hooker, but there is always room for a little more detail.

Now, these two shape up really well and are similar in many ways. As it stands, both guys are carrying some nice momentum into this fight, with Hooker headlining for the first time and Felder gaining more exposure.

Felder is at #6 in the official UFC lightweight rankings, while Hooker is just one place beneath him at #7. Both guys are coming off big wins, against Barboza and Iaquinta, respectively.

This matchup makes sense, and the winner will more than likely leapfrog Donald Cerrone in fifth place. Cracking the top five means edging closer to title shot contention in the long run, but opening the door for possible fights with the likes of Justin Gaethje (#4), Conor McGregor (#3), and Dustin Poirier (#2) next.

So, there is a lot up for grabs.

Both Felder and Hooker have been chipping away for so long in the division. Interestingly enough, these guys both joined the UFC in 2014, and both have 13 fights in the promotion.

If that wasn’t eerie enough, they both have the same record of 9-4 in the UFC.

As you can probably appreciate by now, there are lots of similarities between these two.

Felder is 34 and stands at 5’11” with a reach of 70.5″. Despite being the older man, he has 21 pro fights to Hooker’s 27.

Hooker is 29 and stands at 6’0″ tall with a long reach of 75″. He started his career in the UFC at featherweight but has been in great form since moving up to lightweight in 2017, losing just once.

Both guys have losses to Edson Barboza, with Felder avenging that one in his last outing, as mentioned above.

There is a lot made of Hooker’s reach, and this will definitely pose a problem to Felder. But given Felder’s appetite for war, he will find his way inside Hooker.

Hooker’s only stoppage loss in the UFC came against Barboza, and that was ended by a savage body shot. I would expect to see Felder targeting the body and looking to work “Hangman” against the cage to negate that reach.

Felder is an absolute dog and will be prepared to take this one into the trenches. This is not where Hooker likes the fight.

Hooker will be looking to use that range to his advantage and catch “The Irish Dragon” coming in. If he is looking for the finish, then he will have to find something truly special to get it.

In terms of background, both guys have solid BJJ, with Felder holding a purple belt and Hooker one grade below with a blue belt. That said, Hooker’s ground game has improved a lot.

Still, this one will not go to the ground, in my opinion.

Felder has a Taekwondo and Shotokan background, with good boxing. Hooker has some excellent Muay Thai and is a very accomplished striker.

Hooker is a guy that can pull something out of the bag, but I believe the keys to this fight are endurance, toughness, and heart. Both guys have these in abundance, but I’m giving the slight edge to Paul Felder.

Whatever happens, do not miss this fight. It’s going to be wild.

I’m expecting nothing less than an absolute war on February 23 at the Spark Arena in Auckland.

I really like both guys, and I get no pleasure in picking between them. And I’ll be completely honest — there is little to nothing between these two.

Given that this is a five-round bout and that the pressure is on Hooker to perform, you have to go for Felder, especially given how tough he is. I also think he might be in Hooker’s head.

Either way, I would be shocked if this fight disappoints.

Let me know if you agree or disagree with my pick in the comments section. I’d love to hear your thoughts on this one!